Debates alone rarely move poll numbers in big ways, and Trump continues to lead the crowded field with 29 percent of Republican and independent voters who lean Republican saying they would cast their vote for him. Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina remain on an upward trajectory, now filling in the second and third spots.
Jeb Bush is holding steady at 8%, about the same level of support he's seen since April in NBC News/SurveyMonkey polling. During that same period, Scott Walker has seen his support shrink from 12% to just 3% in our latest poll.
However, nearly a third of Republican voters now say that they expect Donald Trump will be the eventual nominee. When we first asked the question back in April, Trump and Fiorina had not yet announced their candidacies, and Scott Walker was leading the field. Back then, 24% thought Jeb Bush would be the eventual nominee.
More than 1 in 5 currently say they don't know who will win, showing that there's still plenty of time for candidates to rise and fall during the next few months, as voters start to make up their minds.